Match Preview AFL Round 8 Essendon v Sydney
May 18th 2008 01:16
Match Preview, AFL Round 8
Essendon v Sydney, 17th May 2008
Regular readers of this blog would realise by now that I’m a passionate Essendon fan, but I will not be watching this afternoon’s match between the Essendon Bombers and the Sydney Swans. To the notoriously capricious Gods of AFL Football out there, this is your cue to inspire Essendon’s greatest performance for the season, and possibly even the decade. To the hopeful Essendon fans out there, don’t count on it.
At the start of the season, just 8 rounds ago, I made the optimistic prediction that the Bombers would finish the season in 8th position and just scrape into the finals. At this point, even I am losing hope.
This afternoon, Essendon takes on the Sydney Swans at 2:10 pm in Sydney. The Sydney Swans stand on 9th position with 3 wins, 3 losses and a draw. The Bombers are lucky to be 4 from the bottom in 13th position. A four-match losing streak has left them with a dismal 2 wins and 5 losses going into round 8.
The stats suggest this should be an interesting contest. Sydney’s percentage stands at 115.89, dwarfing the Bombers’ paltry 74.73%. Despite this major discrepancy, Essendon has actually outscored Sydney in the first 7 rounds of the competition, amassing a total of 683 points compared to Sydney’s 620 points. This tells us one thing: the difference between these two sides lies in their defensive abilities.
Statistically, the Sydney Swans are the best defensive team in the competition, having conceded just 535 points in the opening 7 rounds, an average of just over 76 points per match. Even Geelong, sitting atop the ladder on 144.44% hasn’t been able to eclipse this feat, having conceded 630 points at the present point in time.
By contrast, Essendon is statistically the worst defensive side in the competition, conceding 914 points in the first 7 rounds, or an average of a whopping 130 points every game.
That’s right, on average, Essendon is conceding 9 goals more than Sydney every game.
So what are the implications of all of these statistics? What will it all mean when Essendon and Sydney take to the field at Homebush in a few hours time?
Probably not a lot, to be honest. For the Bombers, the one positive to take out of it is the likelihood that Sydney will not blow them completely out of the water, because Sydney doesn’t have the offensive firepower of a powerhouse like Geelong or Hawthorn. On the other hand, we can expect Sydney’s defense to have the mastery of the Essendon forward line. In short, be prepared for a hard-fought but low-scoring contest.
Another factor that will surely come into play is the inclusion of some key players for Essendon. Mark McVeigh, who was in sensational form early in the season, will return to the side after overcoming a hamstring injury. So too will Dustin Fletcher, the dependable stalwart who continues to shine in the twilight of his career as the rest of the Essendon defense crumbles around him.
Add to this the desperation that naturally flows from a lengthy losing streak, and the Bombers might just have enough in the tank to turn this game into a contest. But don’t count on it.
One thing we’ve learnt over the past few weeks when it comes to the Bombers is that might is the operative word. Where once that word applied in the sense of the mighty Bombers, it is now a bitter and hollow reminder of their inconsistency and of just how far they have fallen since the glorious season of the new millennium.
Let us not forget that Sydney is a tough opponent and there is no denying it. Although the Swans are still suffering from the absence of Barry Hall after his controversial brain-fade a couple of weeks ago, they have plenty of spark in the midfield and if the Sydney forwards can manage to kick straight (questionable after last week’s performance against the Western Bulldogs), then undoubtedly the Sydney Swans will be a tough side to overcome.
As of today, the question I have officially stopped asking is, “Can the Bombers win?”
I think we can all agree that the answer is simple.
They might. Just don’t count on it.
Essendon v Sydney, 17th May 2008
Regular readers of this blog would realise by now that I’m a passionate Essendon fan, but I will not be watching this afternoon’s match between the Essendon Bombers and the Sydney Swans. To the notoriously capricious Gods of AFL Football out there, this is your cue to inspire Essendon’s greatest performance for the season, and possibly even the decade. To the hopeful Essendon fans out there, don’t count on it.
At the start of the season, just 8 rounds ago, I made the optimistic prediction that the Bombers would finish the season in 8th position and just scrape into the finals. At this point, even I am losing hope.
This afternoon, Essendon takes on the Sydney Swans at 2:10 pm in Sydney. The Sydney Swans stand on 9th position with 3 wins, 3 losses and a draw. The Bombers are lucky to be 4 from the bottom in 13th position. A four-match losing streak has left them with a dismal 2 wins and 5 losses going into round 8.
The stats suggest this should be an interesting contest. Sydney’s percentage stands at 115.89, dwarfing the Bombers’ paltry 74.73%. Despite this major discrepancy, Essendon has actually outscored Sydney in the first 7 rounds of the competition, amassing a total of 683 points compared to Sydney’s 620 points. This tells us one thing: the difference between these two sides lies in their defensive abilities.
Statistically, the Sydney Swans are the best defensive team in the competition, having conceded just 535 points in the opening 7 rounds, an average of just over 76 points per match. Even Geelong, sitting atop the ladder on 144.44% hasn’t been able to eclipse this feat, having conceded 630 points at the present point in time.
By contrast, Essendon is statistically the worst defensive side in the competition, conceding 914 points in the first 7 rounds, or an average of a whopping 130 points every game.
That’s right, on average, Essendon is conceding 9 goals more than Sydney every game.
So what are the implications of all of these statistics? What will it all mean when Essendon and Sydney take to the field at Homebush in a few hours time?
Probably not a lot, to be honest. For the Bombers, the one positive to take out of it is the likelihood that Sydney will not blow them completely out of the water, because Sydney doesn’t have the offensive firepower of a powerhouse like Geelong or Hawthorn. On the other hand, we can expect Sydney’s defense to have the mastery of the Essendon forward line. In short, be prepared for a hard-fought but low-scoring contest.
Another factor that will surely come into play is the inclusion of some key players for Essendon. Mark McVeigh, who was in sensational form early in the season, will return to the side after overcoming a hamstring injury. So too will Dustin Fletcher, the dependable stalwart who continues to shine in the twilight of his career as the rest of the Essendon defense crumbles around him.
Add to this the desperation that naturally flows from a lengthy losing streak, and the Bombers might just have enough in the tank to turn this game into a contest. But don’t count on it.
One thing we’ve learnt over the past few weeks when it comes to the Bombers is that might is the operative word. Where once that word applied in the sense of the mighty Bombers, it is now a bitter and hollow reminder of their inconsistency and of just how far they have fallen since the glorious season of the new millennium.
Let us not forget that Sydney is a tough opponent and there is no denying it. Although the Swans are still suffering from the absence of Barry Hall after his controversial brain-fade a couple of weeks ago, they have plenty of spark in the midfield and if the Sydney forwards can manage to kick straight (questionable after last week’s performance against the Western Bulldogs), then undoubtedly the Sydney Swans will be a tough side to overcome.
As of today, the question I have officially stopped asking is, “Can the Bombers win?”
I think we can all agree that the answer is simple.
They might. Just don’t count on it.
| 70 |
| Vote |
